🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 20, as RED Star FC 93 and Boulogne drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Boulogne 0.85 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Boulogne outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Boulogne attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 43%, Boulogne 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Boulogne's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights