🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Boulogne encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

RED Star FC 93 host Boulogne at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Boulogne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Boulogne and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Boulogne in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 48% versus Boulogne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 43% | Boulogne 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.26 xG and Boulogne 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.915 / defence 0.962 | Boulogne attack 0.726 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.212. Data: 52 RED Star FC 93 games / 19 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 46% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Boulogne 4.00. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: RED Star FC 93 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights