RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.76x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
27%
3.71
27%
3.66
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.35
1.37
Bastia xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.37 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.