RED Star FC 93 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Bastia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Bastia to Stade de Paris. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.

RED Star FC 93 at Stade de Paris this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.

Bastia — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bastia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (RED Star FC 93) versus 1.00 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

In-Play Data

RED Star FC 93 trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Bastia trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 43% versus Bastia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 57% | Bastia 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.98 xG and Bastia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.755 / defence 1.443 | Bastia attack 0.899 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 RED Star FC 93 games / 52 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 27% | Draw 27% | Bastia 46%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 2.17. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 33% | Bastia 60%.

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