RED Star FC 93 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Bastia to Stade de Paris. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93 at Stade de Paris this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Bastia — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (RED Star FC 93) versus 1.00 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bastia trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 43% versus Bastia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 57% | Bastia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.98 xG and Bastia 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.755 / defence 1.443 | Bastia attack 0.899 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 RED Star FC 93 games / 52 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 27% | Draw 27% | Bastia 46%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 2.17. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 33% | Bastia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 27% | Draw 27% | Bastia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.98 / Bastia 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.755 / def 1.443 | Bastia attack 0.899 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Bastia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Bastia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 27% chance of winning, Bastia a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.76x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
27%
3.71
27%
3.66
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.35
1.37
Bastia xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.0 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.37 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 4W 2D 8L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 2L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.00 PPG, Bastia on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.93 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Bastia in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Bastia have gone 3W 9D 2L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Bastia away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.17 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bastia in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and Bastia runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Bastia?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 4-3 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 33%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (RED Star FC 93) and 33% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bastia in 33%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 33% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Bastia tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bastia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RED Star FC 93's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 and Bastia finished level at 0-0 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.98 xG and Bastia 1.37 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.76 / defence 1.44 against Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 27% | Draw 27% | Bastia 46%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 57%, Bastia 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.00 PPG, Bastia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.