RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Bauer to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.00 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Annecy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 1W to 3W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Annecy 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Annecy 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.96 xG and Annecy 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.784 / defence 1.235 | Annecy attack 1.094 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 RED Star FC 93 games / 45 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 19% | Draw 23% | Annecy 58%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Annecy 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 19% | Draw 23% | Annecy 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.96 / Annecy 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.784 / def 1.235 | Annecy attack 1.094 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Annecy (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Annecy xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 19% chance of winning, Annecy a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 3W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.09x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
19%
5.18
23%
4.39
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.79
1.83
Annecy xG
5.18
19%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
3%
32.45
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.83 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 20W 12D 14L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 20W 8D 18L from 46 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.48 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 12W 1D 10L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Annecy have gone 20W 8D 18L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.39 PPG; Annecy away: 1.61 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Annecy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 56%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (RED Star FC 93) and 65% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Annecy in 30%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 65% of Annecy's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Annecy tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Annecy in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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