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Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 0-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 48% | Draw 27% | Annecy 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 52%, Annecy 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Annecy's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.17 PPG, Annecy 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights