🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Annecy make the trip to Stade de Paris to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stade de Paris, RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RED Star FC 93 are significantly better at Stade de Paris than their overall form suggests.

Annecy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Annecy away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 0.80 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Annecy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Annecy 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.918 / defence 1.116 | Annecy attack 0.827 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.039. Data: 29 RED Star FC 93 games / 67 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 48% | Draw 27% | Annecy 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 4.00. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Annecy 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights