Amiens 1-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 39%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Amiens vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dunkerque's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Amiens, 2 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Dunkerque winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 45% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.42 xG and Dunkerque 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.890 / defence 1.233 | Dunkerque attack 1.063 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.039. Data: 67 Amiens games / 67 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 39% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 60% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 39% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Amiens 1.42 / Dunkerque 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.890 / def 1.233 | Dunkerque attack 1.063 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Amiens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Dunkerque xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Dunkerque kick off?
Amiens vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Amiens 1 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Amiens vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dunkerque part of?
Amiens vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Amiens and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.89) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.94
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.78
1.36
Dunkerque xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Amiens and 1.36 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 22W 21D 24L from 67 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 26L across 67 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.30 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 13W 12D 8L from 33 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 13W 9D 11L across 33 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 22W 21D 24L in their last 67 games (1.30 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 28W 13D 26L in their last 67 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dunkerque away?
Amiens's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.55 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Dunkerque runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Dunkerque have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Amiens) and 39% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dunkerque in 30%; Amiens have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Dunkerque 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.42 xG and Dunkerque 1.36 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 39% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.30 PPG, Dunkerque 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.