Quevilly 0-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Quevilly (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
Sochaux have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sochaux's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sochaux are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Quevilly 0W, Sochaux 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 47% versus Sochaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 43% | Sochaux 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.99 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.740 / defence 1.208 | Sochaux attack 1.076 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 0.913. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sochaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Quevilly games / 30 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 40%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Sochaux 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 50% | Sochaux 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 30% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Quevilly 0.99 / Sochaux 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.740 / def 1.208 | Sochaux attack 1.076 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.009 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sochaux xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Sochaux kick off?
Quevilly vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Quevilly 0 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Quevilly vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Sochaux part of?
Quevilly vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 30% chance of winning, Sochaux a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Quevilly and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Sochaux?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 1 | Sochaux 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Sochaux in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Sochaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.08x) against Quevilly's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.24
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.18
1.19
Sochaux xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.19 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 10D 13L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Sochaux's form line: 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.14 PPG from 14 outings (3W 7D 4L).
On the road, Sochaux have gone 5W 5D 4L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.17 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Sochaux away?
Sochaux's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.14 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sochaux in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
3
Draws
1
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Sochaux have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Quevilly 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Sochaux 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Quevilly) and 50% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 36%; Quevilly have failed to score in 43% of games; Sochaux in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 57% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Quevilly's recent games and 50% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Sochaux tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Quevilly 0-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.99 xG and Sochaux 1.19 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sochaux outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.74 / defence 1.21 against Sochaux attack 1.08 / defence 1.32, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 30% | Draw 31% | Sochaux 40%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 43%, Sochaux 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.