Bastia 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Bastia take on Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Auxerre at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 3W 7D 0L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bastia) versus 1.80 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bastia, 1 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 47% versus Auxerre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 30% | Auxerre 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.88 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.845 / defence 0.891 | Auxerre attack 1.114 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 0.913. Data: 30 Bastia games / 30 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 35% | Auxerre 33%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Auxerre 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 35% | Auxerre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Bastia 0.88 / Auxerre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.845 / def 0.891 | Auxerre attack 1.114 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.009 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Auxerre xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Auxerre kick off?
Bastia vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Auxerre?
Bastia 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Bastia vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Auxerre part of?
Bastia vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 32% chance of winning, Auxerre a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bastia and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Bastia and Auxerre in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
35%
2.88
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.79
0.91
Auxerre xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bastia and 0.91 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 8W 13D 9L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 6L across 30 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bastia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 4W 11D 0L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 8W 5D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Auxerre in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 8W 13D 9L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.53 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Bastia or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Auxerre in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Bastia's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bastia
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Auxerre 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 40%, Auxerre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Bastia and 47% for Auxerre.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Auxerre in 40%; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bastia's recent matches and 53% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Bastia's recent games and 47% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bastia and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 31, as Bastia and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.88 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Auxerre attack 1.11 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 32% | Draw 35% | Auxerre 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.