Quevilly 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Quevilly at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Quevilly face Amiens.

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Full Analysis

Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 37). Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Quevilly have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Quevilly's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Quevilly are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Amiens have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Quevilly, 0.70 for Amiens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Quevilly's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Amiens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Quevilly edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2022, ended Quevilly 2–0 Amiens — a Quevilly win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 42% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 42% | Amiens 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.64 xG and Amiens 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.004 / defence 0.969 | Amiens attack 0.855 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Amiens's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Quevilly's projected output up. Data: built from Quevilly's last 74 games and Amiens's last 74.

Result probabilities: Quevilly 53% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 1.88 | Draw 3.97 | Amiens 4.65. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Quevilly 70% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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