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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Saint Etienne 1.40 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Saint Etienne outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.13 / defence 1.36 against Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 37%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights