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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rodez run riot with a 0-5 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat PAU 0-5 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.63 xG and Rodez 1.05 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. PAU fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Rodez attack 1.16 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 51% | Draw 25% | Rodez 25%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Rodez's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights