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Stalemate at PAU's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU and Montpellier finished level at 0-0 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.11 xG and Montpellier 1.43 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAU fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.09 / defence 1.50 against Montpellier attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 29% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 44%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 56%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Montpellier's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Montpellier 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights