🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Metz 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Metz 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.08 xG and Metz 1.66 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Metz attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 25% | Draw 24% | Metz 51%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Metz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.30 PPG, Metz 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights