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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Le Mans defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat PAU 1-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.45 xG and Le Mans 1.36 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Le Mans attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 40% | Draw 25% | Le Mans 35%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Le Mans win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 57%, Le Mans 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.64 PPG, Le Mans 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights