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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat PAU 1-3 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.42 xG and Guingamp 1.37 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.12, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 36%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 54%, Guingamp 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights