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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU and Bastia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU and Bastia finished level at 2-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.46 against Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 26% | Draw 30% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.29 PPG, Bastia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights