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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Annecy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 28% | Annecy 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights