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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Annecy travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PAU — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.10 PPG versus Annecy's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Annecy 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

PAU trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Annecy trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Annecy 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Annecy 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.25 xG and Annecy 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.792 / defence 1.168 | Annecy attack 0.898 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.061. PAU's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 PAU games / 65 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 28% | Annecy 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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