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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat PAU 3-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.46 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 26% | PAU 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, PAU 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.69 PPG, PAU 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights