🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Lorient 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Lorient 3-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.45 xG and Lorient 0.90 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lorient outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Lorient attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 50% | Draw 27% | Lorient 23%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Lorient 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Lorient's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights