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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Estac Troyes attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights