Nimes 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Nimes take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nimes welcome Rodez to Stade des Costières in Ligue 2 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nimes have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Nimes have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rodez stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rodez away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nimes at 1.10 PPG versus Rodez's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Nimes, 1 for Rodez and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2022, ended Nimes 3–2 Rodez — a Nimes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Rodez in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 50% versus Rodez 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nimes 52% | Rodez 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.94 xG and Rodez 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.917 / defence 1.154 | Rodez attack 0.833 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. Data: built from Nimes's last 40 games and Rodez's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nimes 33% | Draw 34% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.06 | Draw 2.92 | Rodez 3.02. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nimes 60% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 20% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Nimes 40 games, Rodez 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 3 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 33% | Draw 34% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Nimes 0.94 / Rodez 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.917 / def 1.154 | Rodez attack 0.833 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rodez xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Rodez kick off?
Nimes vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Rodez?
Nimes 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Nimes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Rodez part of?
Nimes vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 3) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 33% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nimes and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Nimes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 40 games and Rodez's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
34%
2.92
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.89
0.95
Rodez xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.4 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Nimes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nimes and 0.95 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 8D 18L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (10W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.25 PPG, Rodez on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nimes's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across their last 20 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.80 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
Nimes (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Nimes vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Rodez have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Rodez away?
Nimes's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.10 PPG; Rodez away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nimes or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rodez in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nimes's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Rodez?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 2, Rodez have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nimes and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2023: Rodez 1-1 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Rodez?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 60%, Rodez 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Nimes) and 30% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 35%; Nimes have failed to score in 40% of games; Rodez in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Nimes's recent matches and 30% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nimes and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Nimes's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Nimes's recent matches and 70% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nimes defy the odds to beat Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.94 xG and Rodez 0.95 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 33% | Draw 34% | Rodez 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 52%, Rodez 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 3
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →