Nantes 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire to face Nantes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Clermont Foot have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 7D 3L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Nantes, 1 for Clermont Foot and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Clermont Foot 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Clermont Foot 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.30 xG and Clermont Foot 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.810 / defence 1.179 | Clermont Foot attack 1.096 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.341. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Nantes games / 44 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 47%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Clermont Foot 2.13. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 40% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 28% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Nantes 1.30 / Clermont Foot 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.810 / def 1.179 | Clermont Foot attack 1.096 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Clermont Foot xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Nantes 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nantes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 28% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nantes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Record (6 meetings): Nantes 3W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.10x) against Nantes's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
28%
3.54
25%
4.06
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.03
1.73
Clermont Foot xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
5%
20.04
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Nantes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nantes and 1.73 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 7W 10D 26L from 43 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 18L across 43 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.72 PPG for Nantes against 1.00 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 4W 4D 12L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.05 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 7W 10D 26L in their last 43 games (0.72 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 16D 18L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.80 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Nantes
3
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
From 7 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Nantes 1-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Clermont Foot 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nantes) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nantes's games and 60% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Nantes's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 11, as Nantes and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.30 xG and Clermont Foot 1.73 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against Clermont Foot attack 1.10 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 28% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 47%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 0.72 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.