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Nancy and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 29, as Nancy and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.80 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Saint Etienne attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 18% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 54%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 50%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights