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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nancy and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 4, as Nancy and PAU drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.21 xG and PAU 1.15 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 38% | Draw 28% | PAU 34%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 33%, PAU 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nancy 2.33 PPG, PAU 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nancy shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights