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Prediction vindicated as Nancy edge out Boulogne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.52 xG and Boulogne 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 44% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 29%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 0%, Boulogne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Boulogne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nancy scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Boulogne managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.