Nancy 1-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Boulogne at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Form points away from home here. Boulogne's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nancy's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.52 xG and Boulogne 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Boulogne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.226. Data: 1 Nancy games / 0 Boulogne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nancy 44% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 29%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Boulogne 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Boulogne (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 44% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nancy 1.52 / Boulogne 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Boulogne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Nancy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Boulogne xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Boulogne kick off?
Nancy vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Boulogne?
Nancy 1 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Nancy vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Boulogne part of?
Nancy vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 44% chance of winning, Boulogne a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nancy and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Boulogne in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Boulogne (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nancy's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.76
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.72
1.20
Boulogne xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nancy and 1.20 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. Boulogne haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Boulogne by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Boulogne's attacking output running into Nancy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Boulogne in 100%.
Defensively: Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Boulogne
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Nancy or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Boulogne in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Boulogne runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Nancy
2
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Boulogne 0-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Boulogne?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nancy's recent matches and 100% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nancy's recent games and 100% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Boulogne tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nancy edge out Boulogne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.52 xG and Boulogne 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 44% | Draw 27% | Boulogne 29%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 0%, Boulogne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Boulogne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nancy scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Boulogne managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.