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Nancy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nancy beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.67 xG and Bastia 0.61 xG, a combined 1.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nancy beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Bastia attack 0.51 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 31% | Draw 40% | Bastia 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 14%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 36% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 22% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 54%, Bastia 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Bastia's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Nancy arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights