🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Annecy run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Nancy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Nancy 1-5 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.55 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 1.55 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 50%, Annecy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights