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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Montpellier beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.67 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Montpellier beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 1.23 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 27% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 49%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 43%, Guingamp 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights