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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Grenoble 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Montpellier beat Grenoble 2-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.63 xG and Grenoble 1.11 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against Grenoble attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 47% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 24%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 42%, Grenoble 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Montpellier 0.94 PPG, Grenoble 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights