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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Montpellier and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Montpellier and Estac Troyes finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 1.07 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Montpellier beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Estac Troyes attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 36% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 32%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 42%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights