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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Montpellier.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Montpellier 1-3 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.02 xG and Dunkerque 1.27 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Dunkerque attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 30% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 42%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 43%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Montpellier (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights