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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metz and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz and Rodez finished level at 3-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.98 xG and Rodez 1.34 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against Rodez attack 1.20 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 52% | Draw 22% | Rodez 26%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 54%, Rodez 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.34 PPG, Rodez 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights