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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.43 xG and Estac Troyes 0.95 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.30 / defence 0.91 against Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.82, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 48% | Draw 27% | Estac Troyes 25%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 51%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.32 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights