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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Dunkerque 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.87 xG and Dunkerque 1.10 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dunkerque landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.25 / defence 1.16 against Dunkerque attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 55% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 22%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Dunkerque 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Dunkerque's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.36 PPG, Dunkerque 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights