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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Metz run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Annecy 5-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.42 xG and Annecy 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 52% | Draw 27% | Annecy 21%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 49%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.26 PPG, Annecy 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights