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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Martigues and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues and PAU finished level at 2-2 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 1.06 xG and PAU 1.36 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Martigues beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.73 / defence 1.20 against PAU attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 29% | Draw 27% | PAU 44%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 38%, PAU 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did.

PAU's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Martigues 0.92 PPG, PAU 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.54 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights