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Dominant Metz run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Martigues.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Martigues 1-4 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 1.08 xG and Metz 1.49 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Metz attack 1.22 / defence 0.93, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 28% | Draw 26% | Metz 46%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 38%, Metz 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Martigues (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights