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Martigues cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 1.07 xG and Ajaccio 1.21 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Martigues beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajaccio landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Ajaccio attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Martigues 32% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 39%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Martigues win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 41%, Ajaccio 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Martigues's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajaccio's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Martigues 0.93 PPG, Ajaccio 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Martigues win broke the near-deadlock. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights