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Dominant Lorient run riot with a 5-0 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat PAU 5-0 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 2.11 xG and PAU 1.10 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.37 / defence 0.95 against PAU attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 61% | Draw 20% | PAU 19%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 60%, PAU 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

PAU's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lorient 1.40 PPG, PAU 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights