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Dominant Lorient run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Martigues.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Martigues 5-1 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.97 xG and Martigues 0.73 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.49 / defence 0.81 against Martigues attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 66% | Draw 20% | Martigues 13%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 58%, Martigues 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Martigues's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Martigues (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights