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Dominant Lorient run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Caen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Caen 4-0 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 2.63 xG and Caen 0.95 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.48 / defence 0.87 against Caen attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 73% | Draw 16% | Caen 11%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 60%, Caen 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Caen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights