🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Lorient run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lorient beat Bastia 4-0 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.67 xG and Bastia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lorient 55% | Draw 24% | Bastia 20%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 58%, Bastia 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lorient's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Bastia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lorient 1.35 PPG, Bastia 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights