🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Le Mans 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Le Mans 0-1 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.44 xG and Rodez 1.19 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Mans fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 43% | Draw 26% | Rodez 31%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 50%, Rodez 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rodez's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Mans 1.00 PPG, Rodez 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Le Mans managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Rodez conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights