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Dominant Le Mans run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat PAU 4-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.16 xG and PAU 1.11 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Le Mans beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.91 / defence 0.79 against PAU attack 1.22 / defence 1.12, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 33%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 39%, PAU 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

PAU's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights