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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Mans and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 9, as Le Mans and Estac Troyes drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 0.85 xG and Estac Troyes 1.18 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Le Mans beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Estac Troyes attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Mans 27% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 38%, Estac Troyes 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Mans's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights