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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Rouen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Laval beat Rouen 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Final, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.45 xG and Rouen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rouen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Rouen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 0%, Rouen 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Laval 1.00 PPG, Rouen 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rouen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights